Texas Senate Race Becomes $200M Republican Money Pit as Paxton Scandals Deepen

Key points

• Senate Leadership Fund has spent a record $131 million in Texas in 17 days, with total outside GOP spending projected to exceed $200 million.
• MAGA Inc. is expected to spend $45 million through Oct. 12, but Republicans fear this may not be enough to secure the seat before the election.
• Paxton’s private criticism of Trump’s convention, which leaked recently, has intensified GOP panic over his viability and the efficiency of the spending.
• Democrats are beginning to spend in Texas for the first time in significant volume, with the Senate Majority PAC launching its first ads.
• Only about 2% of pro-Paxton ad spending is in Spanish, a gap that worries Republicans given Talarico’s strong support among Latino voters.

Background

The race became a national priority after Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Recent archive coverage highlights deep divisions within the GOP base, including appeals from Angela Paxton to prioritize party unity despite her husband’s scandals, and concerns that suburban defections could cost down-ballot candidates. The current spending surge is an attempt to counter these vulnerabilities and prevent a historic Democratic victory in a traditionally red state.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasizes the internal GOP panic and the fear that MAGA Inc. may not commit enough funds in time, highlighting the 'five-alarm fire' nature of the situation. CNN focuses on the sheer scale of the spending, noting that Texas is now the most expensive Senate race, surpassing even Ohio, and details the 5-to-1 spending advantage Republicans hold. The Texas Tribune points out a critical strategic gap: despite the massive budget, only 2% of ads are in Spanish, leaving Republicans vulnerable with Latino voters, a demographic where Talarico leads significantly. Axios provides the financial breakdown, noting the $131 million spent by Texas PAC in just 17 days and the risk that this money is being diverted from other competitive states like Michigan and New Hampshire.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is now the most expensive in the nation, with Republicans spending over $200 million to prevent a potential loss in a deep-red state. This massive expenditure is diverting resources from other competitive races, such as Michigan and New Hampshire, and raises questions about the efficiency of the GOP’s midterm strategy. If Paxton loses, it would mark the first time a Republican has lost a statewide race in Texas in over 30 years, potentially shifting the balance of power in the Senate.

What to watch

MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund are expected to continue spending in the final weeks, with Trump scheduled to rally in San Antonio next week. Democrats are ramping up their own spending, with the Senate Majority PAC launching its first ads. The outcome will likely depend on whether the massive Republican spending can overcome Paxton’s polling deficits and the lack of Spanish-language outreach, or if the money will be insufficient to prevent a historic Democratic victory.