Texas Senate Race Becomes Most Expensive in History as GOP Spends $131M to Save Paxton

Key points

• A new Texas PAC affiliated with the GOP Senate Leadership Fund spent $131 million in 17 days, averaging $7.7 million daily, to support Paxton.
• The race is on track to cost $440 million, with collective advertising spending already exceeding $153 million as of late September.
• Paxton's campaign announced a new $20 million ad buy targeting Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, described as one of the largest single media investments in Texas Senate history.
• Despite the spending, polls show Talarico leading by 1 to 6 percentage points, and Paxton faces vulnerabilities due to past scandals.
• Democratic groups are increasing spending but remain significantly outspent; Senate Majority PAC has launched a new ad campaign against Paxton.

Background

The race became a national priority after President Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Earlier in September, Elon Musk's America PAC and MAGA Inc. began injecting millions into the race, signaling national GOP support. Paxton's wife, Angela Paxton, recently urged conservative women to prioritize party unity over personal grievances, highlighting internal tensions within the GOP base.

How outlets are covering it

Axios emphasizes the staggering speed and scale of GOP spending, noting that $61.4 million was spent in just two days. Politico highlights the strategic ad buys and the tight polling, noting that Talarico raised a record $30 million from April to June. The New York Times, cited by Axios, reports that Paxton was secretly recorded complaining that Trump's recent convention in Dallas may have hurt his numbers, despite Trump's public support. Yahoo's coverage, while partially obscured by technical errors, frames the race as a 'money pit disaster' for the MAGA candidate, suggesting the financial outlay may not yield electoral success.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate seat is critical for control of the U.S. Senate. The unprecedented spending reflects the high stakes of the 2026 midterms and the vulnerability of GOP candidates in traditionally red states. If Paxton loses, it would mark the first time a Republican has lost a statewide race in Texas in over three decades, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape.

What to watch

Both sides are expected to increase spending in the final two months of the campaign. Talarico's team has booked $35 million in ads, while pro-Paxton groups are on track to outspend them by nearly 5-to-1. The race will likely remain tight, with polls showing a narrow margin for Talarico. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the Senate and the broader political dynamics in Texas.