Texas Senate Race Hinges on Paxton's Scandals and Democratic Turnout

Key points

• Polls from Texas Southern University and the University of Texas show Talarico leading Paxton, with Paxton having a 55% unfavorable rating among likely voters.
• Paxton's 2023 impeachment for bribery and subsequent divorce from his wife, Angela Paxton, have damaged his credibility, with only one-third of Texans viewing him as honest.
• Democrats are leveraging Texas's large Black and Latino voter populations, with former President Barack Obama endorsing Talarico, to try and flip the state blue for the first time in over 30 years.
• Republicans are concerned about Paxton's lack of appeal to suburban voters and the potential for their base to stay home or vote for third-party candidates, despite Trump's support.
• The race is seen as a referendum on Trump's popularity, which has sunk to a career low of 31% nationally and 43% in Texas.

Background

The 2026 Texas Senate race is the first competitive statewide contest in the state since 1994. Previous coverage highlighted the internal GOP conflict over Paxton's nomination, with Sen. John Cornyn criticizing his rival. Angela Paxton's recent efforts to urge party unity despite her divorce from Ken Paxton underscore the personal and political tensions surrounding the candidate.

How outlets are covering it

USA Today emphasizes Paxton's personal scandals and the resulting vulnerability among suburban and independent voters, noting that even some Republicans are hesitant to support him. Fox News focuses on the potential for Black and Latino voter turnout to be the decisive factor for Talarico, highlighting the importance of these demographics in flipping the state. The New York Times frames the race as a historic opportunity for Democrats to break a decades-long Republican dominance, while Axios compares the current race to the 2018 Cruz-O'Rourke contest, noting similarities in the referendum on Trump and the importance of turnout.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas Senate race could signal a shift in the political landscape of a traditionally red state. A Democratic victory would be the first statewide win in over 30 years and could have implications for future elections and the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

What to watch

The final weeks of the campaign will focus on voter turnout, particularly among Black and Latino communities. Both candidates are expected to ramp up their efforts in suburban and rural areas, with Trump making a final stop in Texas to support Paxton.