Texas Senate Race Hits Breaking Point as Paxton’s Scandals Collide with Trump’s Low Approval
The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is deadlocked, with polls showing a toss-up despite Texas’s historical Republican dominance. Paxton faces a crisis of credibility due to recent scandals, including a Dubai party with federal fugitives, while Talarico benefits from high Democratic enthusiasm and economic anxiety. Republicans are pouring record sums into the race to counter Trump’s plummeting approval ratings and fears of low voter turnout.
Key points
- Paxton and Talarico are tied in polls, marking the closest Texas statewide race in three decades.
- Paxton’s campaign is hampered by a Dubai scandal involving indicted fraudsters and a $190,000 donation.
- Talarico leads among voters concerned about the cost of living and those who view Paxton as too close to Trump.
- Republicans are spending nearly $1 million daily to mobilize base voters, while Democrats report higher enthusiasm.
- Trump’s approval rating has hit a career low of 32%, complicating his endorsement of Paxton.
Background
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Paxton, the state attorney general, previously survived impeachment and securities charges. He replaced incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary earlier this year. The race is critical for determining Senate majority control in the 2026 midterms.
How outlets are covering it
The Guardian emphasizes Paxton’s 'scandal resilience' and his inability to control the narrative, noting leaked audio where he admits the campaign is out of his hands. CBS News highlights the race as a turnout battle, noting Talarico’s lead among voters affected by high prices. The Washington Post focuses on Ted Cruz’s aggressive intervention, including sartorial advice for Paxton, to save the seat. The Los Angeles Times centers on the impact of immigration enforcement on Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley, who are shifting away from Republicans despite previous support for Trump.
Why it matters
The outcome will determine whether Democrats can break a 32-year losing streak in Texas and potentially secure a Senate majority. The race serves as a referendum on Trump’s second presidency, with his low approval ratings and controversial policies directly influencing voter behavior in a key Republican stronghold.
What to watch
Early voting begins in Texas this week. Both campaigns are in a final push to mobilize their bases, with Republicans focusing on turnout among rural and male voters, and Democrats targeting independents and Latino communities. The outcome will likely hinge on whether Republican enthusiasm can overcome economic dissatisfaction and Paxton’s scandal baggage.
- Getaway cars, affairs, Dubai fugitives: Trump’s pick Ken Paxton brings baggage to Senate race in Texas The Guardian
- CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate race CBS News
- In Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz tries to push Ken Paxton across the finish line The Washington Post
- In tight Texas Senate race, Trump's immigration crackdown tests Republicans' hold on voters Los Angeles Times
- New Texas poll shows Democrats leading nearly all statewide races WFAA
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