Texas Senate race remains deadlocked as economic anxiety and immigration backlash reshape voter alignment

Key points

• A CBS News poll shows the race is a toss-up, with Talarico leading on cost-of-living concerns and Paxton benefiting from higher Republican turnout intentions.
• Talarico draws support from Latino voters and younger demographics, while Paxton retains rural and older Republican voters despite low enthusiasm.
• The race has become one of the most expensive in U.S. history, with over $500 million in ad spending and significant contributions from Elon Musk and national GOP groups.
• Paxton faces ongoing scandal scrutiny, including a recent report of a Dubai party with federal fugitives, while Talarico has faced attacks on his character and personal life.
• Trump’s approval rating has hit a career low at 32%, complicating Paxton’s campaign despite the president’s active support and rallies in Texas.

Background

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making this race a historic test for the party. Previous polls in early October showed Talarico with a slim edge, driven by economic anxiety and GOP divisions. The race is critical for Senate control, with both parties pouring resources into the state.

How outlets are covering it

CBS News emphasizes the race’s dependence on turnout, noting Talarico’s lead among economic and character-focused voters. The Guardian highlights Paxton’s scandal resilience and the intense Republican spending to counter his weaknesses. The Washington Post focuses on Ted Cruz’s active campaigning for Paxton, despite Cruz not being on the ballot. The Los Angeles Times underscores the shift among Latino and border-region voters, who are now opposing the administration’s immigration policies, a key factor in Talarico’s support.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race could determine control of the U.S. Senate and signal a potential shift in the state’s political landscape. A Democratic win would be the first statewide victory in over 30 years, while a Republican loss could signal broader midterm vulnerabilities for the party.

What to watch

Early voting begins in Texas, with the final outcome likely determined by turnout among undecided and Latino voters. Both campaigns are expected to continue heavy spending and outreach in the final weeks.