Texas Senate Race Remains Statistically Tied as Early Voting Begins

Key points

• UT/Texas Politics Project poll (Sept 25-Oct 5) shows Talarico at 50% vs. Paxton at 47%, within a 3.3-point margin of error.
• Talarico leads independents 69% to 11%, while Paxton leads rural voters 66% to 30%.
• Early voting begins Oct. 19; recent polls from YouGov, NYT, and Fox News show similar tight margins.
• Trump held rallies in Denton and San Antonio to support Paxton, while Vance visited East Texas.
• Republican-aligned groups plan to spend $232 million on ads attacking Talarico’s social views.

Background

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Previous polls in October showed the race tightening, with UMass Lowell reporting a 45-45 tie on Oct. 8. The current contest is pivotal for Senate control, with Democrats hoping to break a decades-long losing streak in a traditionally red state.

How outlets are covering it

USA TODAY emphasizes the statistical tie and demographic breakdowns, highlighting Talarico’s lead among independents and women. CNN focuses on the emotional and ideological stakes, noting Democratic optimism after decades of losses and Republican efforts to portray Talarico as too liberal. CNN also details the massive $232 million ad spend by GOP-aligned groups and Trump’s direct attacks, while USA TODAY notes Paxton’s lower favorability among his own base compared to Talarico’s.

Why it matters

The outcome will determine whether Democrats end a 38-year losing streak in Texas and potentially shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. The race highlights deep regional and ideological divides, with urban and independent voters favoring Talarico and rural voters backing Paxton. High spending and national attention underscore the seat’s importance in the broader 2026 election landscape.

What to watch

Early voting begins Oct. 19, with final results expected in November. Campaigns will continue to target undecided and crossover voters, particularly in suburban and Latino communities. Additional polls may emerge as turnout data becomes available, and national figures like Trump and Vance are expected to make further appearances to influence the outcome.