Texas Senate Race Remains Tossup as Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton

Key points

• A new Big Data Poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters, with 11.9% undecided.
• Cook Political Report rates the race as a tossup, while Decision Desk HQ averages show Talarico leading 47.4% to 43.5%.
• Talarico holds a 32-point advantage among independents, while Paxton leads among voters over 55 and white voters.
• Paxton faces criticism from some Republicans, including Sen. Thom Tillis, who called Trump's endorsement a 'colossal mistake.'
• Talarico has challenged Paxton to a Fox News debate, which Paxton's campaign has declined to attend.

Background

The Texas Senate race has been closely monitored since the 2024 presidential election, where Trump won the state by 13.7 points. Recent polls in September have shown a tight contest, with Talarico gaining ground among independents, Hispanics, and younger voters. The race is seen as a bellwether for Democratic chances in the 2026 midterms, with potential implications for control of the U.S. Senate.

How outlets are covering it

The Hill and USA Today report on the Big Data Poll, showing Talarico's lead among registered and likely voters. U.S. News & World Report highlights the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, which shows a wider lead for Talarico (49% to 44%) and notes his strength among independents. All sources agree the race is too close to call, but emphasize different voter demographics and polling margins. The Hill notes Paxton's past impeachment attempt, while U.S. News details his legal controversies and Trump's endorsement.

Why it matters

A Democratic win in Texas would be a historic shift, as the state has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1993. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the Senate and signal broader trends in the 2026 midterms, particularly regarding cost-of-living concerns and voter sentiment toward Trump's agenda.

What to watch

With less than six weeks until Election Day, both campaigns are intensifying outreach efforts. Talarico is pushing for a Fox News debate, while Paxton's campaign continues to avoid forums. Polling will likely remain tight, with undecided voters and suburban Republicans seen as key swing groups. The race will be decided on November 3, 2026.