Texas Senate race ties at 45% as early voting nears, raising stakes for GOP

Key points

• The UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, fielded Sept. 18-28, shows Paxton and Talarico tied at 45%, with a 4.5-point margin of error.
• Paxton leads voters over 65 (58%-38%), while Talarico leads younger voters (49%-37%) and Black voters (67%-17%).
• In the governor’s race, incumbent Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa 48%-44%, within the margin of error.
• Trump’s approval in Texas stands at 47%, with 53% disapproving, and 56% of Texans report it is harder to afford basic necessities.
• Early voting in Texas begins October 19, with Election Day on November 3.

Background

Recent polls from September and early October showed Talarico leading Paxton by 2-6 points, including a Fox News poll on October 1. The UMass Lowell poll is the first to show a tie, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. Background indicates the race has been tight, with economic concerns and candidate favorability playing key roles. Trump’s recent visits to Texas and Talarico’s two-week absence from the campaign trail may have influenced the latest results.

How outlets are covering it

USA TODAY and UMass Lowell report the tie as a significant development, with UMass Lowell’s John Cluverius noting that 'anything can happen' in the final weeks. MS NOW emphasizes Paxton’s negative favorability rating (-14%) as a broader GOP problem, contrasting it with Talarico’s +6.5% net favorability. While USA TODAY focuses on the poll’s implications for the race, MS NOW frames it within the context of Republican nominee unpopularity in competitive states. All sources agree the race is competitive, but differ on whether the tie signals a GOP recovery or a Democratic advantage.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate seat is crucial for congressional control, as a Democratic win would end the GOP’s hold since 1988. The tie in the poll, combined with economic concerns and candidate favorability, suggests the race could go either way, with early voting potentially influencing the outcome. The governor’s race is also competitive, with Abbott leading by 4 points, within the margin of error.

What to watch

Early voting begins October 19, and the final weeks of the campaign will be critical. Trump’s continued involvement and Talarico’s return to the campaign trail may shift the race. The outcome of the Senate race could determine the balance of power in Congress, while the governor’s race will shape Texas’s political landscape.