Times/Siena Polls Show Moody Leads Florida Senate Race, While Democrats Gain Ground in South Carolina and Minnesota
A new New York Times/Siena poll indicates Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 6 points in Florida's Senate race, while the governor's race remains within the margin of error. In South Carolina, the Senate race is a toss-up, and in Minnesota, Democrats hold a significant lead.
Key points
- In Florida, Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 50% to 44% for the U.S. Senate, with 8% undecided.
- The Florida governor's race shows Byron Donalds leading David Jolly 48% to 44%, a margin within the 3.9 percentage point error.
- In South Carolina, Annie Andrews and Darline Graham are tied at 48% among likely voters.
- In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 54% to 40%.
- Trump approval in Florida stands at 43% (28% strongly, 15% somewhat), with 53% disapproving.
Background
Recent archive coverage from October 28, 2026, highlighted similar findings from these same polls, noting the South Carolina tie and Minnesota lead. It also reported on Kathy Hochul widening her lead in New York to 14 points, indicating a broader Democratic momentum in several states during the 2026 midterm cycle.
How outlets are covering it
The New York Times provides the raw data, showing Moody's lead in Florida and the tight gubernatorial race. CNN interprets these numbers, framing Florida as a 'second-tier target' for Democrats due to Moody's lead, while emphasizing that the governor's race is 'in play.' CNN also highlights that despite Nixon's nomination as a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, only 37% of Florida likely voters view her as too far left. In South Carolina, CNN notes the 'astounding' nature of the tie in a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024, attributing it to qualification questions surrounding Darline Graham. The NYT data supports this, showing 62% of Democrats and 59% of independents believe Andrews has the right experience, compared to lower approval for Graham.
Why it matters
These polls suggest Democrats have expanded their competitive map for the 2026 midterms, particularly in traditionally Republican states like South Carolina and Florida. The tight races in Florida could impact control of the U.S. Senate and state government, while the South Carolina toss-up indicates potential Democratic gains in the South.
What to watch
The polls were conducted from October 19 to 25, 2026, with results released on October 28. The general election is scheduled for November 2026. Further polling and campaign activities will likely focus on the undecided voters in Florida and the competitive races in South Carolina and Minnesota.
- Toplines: October 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Florida The New York Times
- The Senate Race in Heavily Republican South Carolina Is a Tossup, Poll Finds The New York Times
- New polls have more good news for Democrats’ Senate hopes CNN
- Darline Graham Hit with Troubling Poll One Day Before Trump Rally Newsweek
- Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Ahead In Minnesota And Ohio, Republican Leads In Florida Forbes
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