Trump Endorses Paxton in Denton Despite Leaked Audio and Polling Concerns

Key points

• Trump held a rally at a Peterbilt plant in Denton, Texas, urging voters to elect Paxton to replace Sen. John Cornyn.
• Leaked audio from The New York Times showed Paxton telling donors that the recent GOP convention 'dropped our numbers' and that Trump was a political drag.
• Trump dismissed the audio, stating he must support Paxton to win the election, while continuing to mock Paxton’s appearance and speaking style.
• Polling from YouGov and The Economist shows 62% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with 75% rating the economy poorly.
• The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as a 'Toss Up,' while Inside Elections lists it as 'Lean R.'

Background

This visit marks Trump’s second trip to Texas in a few weeks, following the September 9-10 GOP convention in Dallas where he also mocked Paxton. The tension between the two figures has been highlighted by leaked audio clips reported in early October, which suggested Paxton viewed the president’s support as a liability. Previous coverage noted that while national spending favors Paxton, public polls have shown him trailing his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, whom Trump has derisively labeled 'Tala-freako.'

How outlets are covering it

Roll Call emphasizes the awkward dynamic between Trump and Paxton, noting that the president’s public ribbing of the candidate serves to acknowledge reservations while still pushing for a win. The outlet highlights the contrast between Trump’s praise and his criticism of Paxton’s appearance. The Denton Record-Chronicle provided limited substantive reporting, focusing primarily on the event logistics rather than the political conflict. Polling data cited by Roll Call suggests that economic concerns, particularly high gas prices, are driving voter dissatisfaction with Trump, which may explain why Paxton privately viewed the convention as a negative factor for his campaign.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is critical for Republicans to maintain their majority in the 2026 midterms. The public friction between the party’s leader and its top candidate highlights internal divisions within the GOP. If Paxton loses despite Trump’s endorsement, it could signal a broader rejection of the party’s strategy or the president’s influence among voters in key swing states. The leaked audio adds a layer of complexity, suggesting that even within the party, there are doubts about the president’s electoral value in competitive races.

What to watch

Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Oklahoma and Alabama in the coming days, continuing his campaign tour to support Republican candidates. The focus will remain on the November 3 midterm elections, where the outcome of the Texas Senate race will be a key indicator of the party’s standing. Paxton’s campaign will likely continue to distance itself from the leaked audio, while Trump is expected to maintain his endorsement despite the public criticism.