Trump Launches 10-State Midterm Blitz Focusing on Red States Amid Plunging Approval

Key points

• Trump plans to visit at least 10 states, including Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio, and Michigan, in the final month of the campaign.
• A major swing will take him from Washington to Montana, Alaska, Las Vegas, Arizona, and Texas, with the first leg already completed in Oklahoma and Alabama.
• Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, driven by dissatisfaction with the economy and the war in Iran, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
• Republicans hold a substantial fundraising advantage, with $238.6 million on hand compared to $130.4 million for Democrats, and have spent $200 million more on congressional ads in September.
• The tour includes states where Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Iowa and Kansas, as well as competitive Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina.

Background

This campaign surge follows earlier concerns about the timing of Trump’s intervention in the midterms. Previous reports indicated that while Trump’s MAGA Inc. had raised over $400 million, late spending on traditional TV ads in key states like Texas was raising costs and shifting focus to digital and ground strategies. Additionally, the GOP’s first midterm convention in Dallas in September raised questions about whether Trump’s presence would unify the party or backfire in competitive districts due to his low approval ratings.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasizes the logistical scope of the tour, highlighting the 'blitz' nature of the travel schedule and the inclusion of both battleground and red states to shore up vulnerable areas. USA Today focuses on the strategic rationale, noting that while Trump’s unpopularity could energize Democrats, Republicans rely on their fundraising advantage and the potential for his rallies to spur turnout in safe states. The New York Times characterizes the rallies as a 'show' for loyal supporters, questioning the efficacy of campaigning in states where the audience is already sold, while also noting the risk of impeachment if Republicans lose Congress. KOCO provides a local perspective from Oklahoma, featuring Senator James Lankford’s reaction to Trump’s speech, which touched on immigration, inflation, and the Iran conflict, illustrating the on-the-ground reception in a key red state.

Why it matters

The outcome of the midterms will determine whether Republicans can maintain their narrow control of Congress, which is crucial for passing legislation and avoiding Democratic investigations. Trump’s strategy of focusing on red states aims to maximize turnout among his base, but his low approval ratings pose a risk of energizing Democratic voters. The significant fundraising advantage for Republicans may mitigate this risk, but the competitive nature of several races in traditionally red states suggests a tight contest. The success of this campaign blitz will have lasting implications for the balance of power in the U.S. government and the ability of the administration to implement its agenda.

What to watch

Trump is expected to continue his tour, with upcoming stops in Ohio, Nebraska, and other states. The next major swing will include Montana, Alaska, Las Vegas, Arizona, and Texas. The focus will be on mobilizing voters in both competitive and safe states, with heavy spending on advertising and ground games. The results of the midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress and the ability of the administration to pass legislation and avoid Democratic investigations.