Trump’s Midterm Tour: Rallying in Red States Despite Plunging Approval

Key points

• Trump visited Durant, Oklahoma, on October 1, 2026, to endorse Republican candidates for Congress and the governorship, stating he had previously discussed moving to the state with Gov. Kevin Stitt.
• The president’s approval rating has fallen to 32% in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, with voters citing economic costs and the war on Iran as primary reasons for dissatisfaction.
• Trump’s tour includes stops in Texas, Alabama, Ohio, and Nebraska, focusing on states he won by large margins in 2024, such as Oklahoma (66%) and Alabama (64%).
• Republicans hold a significant fundraising advantage, with $238.6 million on hand compared to Democrats’ $130.4 million, and have spent $200 million more on congressional ads in September.
• The GOP controls the Senate 53-47 and the House 218-214, making the retention of even a single seat critical for maintaining legislative control.

Background

This tour follows a broader trend of Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump due to declining popularity, as seen in Florida’s gubernatorial race. It also follows earlier reports of Trump’s daughter, Kai, adjusting to college life, and diplomatic tensions with North Korea, highlighting the administration’s focus on domestic political survival over foreign policy consistency.

How outlets are covering it

KOCO highlighted Trump’s personal connection to Oklahoma, noting his remarks about potentially moving to the state and his endorsement of local candidates. USA Today, however, framed the tour as a strategic gamble, pointing out that Trump’s low approval ratings could energize Democratic voters in competitive states. While KOCO focused on the specific Oklahoma event, USA Today emphasized the broader national implications, including the risk of losing the House or Senate and the financial disparity between party organizations.

Why it matters

The outcome of the midterms will determine whether Republicans can maintain their legislative advantage, which is crucial for passing legislation and avoiding Democratic investigations. Trump’s strategy of rallying in red states may boost turnout but risks alienating moderate voters in competitive districts, potentially leading to a loss of the House or Senate.

What to watch

Trump is scheduled to visit Ohio on October 3 and Nebraska on October 5, with further stops planned in competitive races. The next major milestone will be the November 3 elections, where the retention of the House and Senate will be critical for the GOP’s legislative agenda.