Trump rallies in South Carolina as Cook Report downgrades Graham's Senate odds

Key points

• Trump held a rally in Pendleton, South Carolina, on Oct. 21 to boost Darline Graham's campaign.
• Graham is running for a full six-year term, having previously been appointed to her late brother Lindsey Graham's seat.
• The Cook Political Report downgraded Graham's chances in the race, signaling a competitive contest.
• Democrats are expanding their strategy into traditionally Republican states, including South Carolina, Mississippi, and others.
• A New York Times/Siena poll shows an 11-point preference for Democratic House candidates among likely voters.

Background

The South Carolina Senate race has been contentious since early October, with polls showing a statistical tie between Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews. National Republican leaders, including the Senate Leadership Fund, injected $5 million into the race after Trump used an anti-transgender slur against Andrews, signaling GOP anxiety. Democrats have reallocated resources to swing states, while Republicans focus on protecting their Senate majority.

How outlets are covering it

AP News and WLOS focus on Trump's rally in Pendleton as a key effort to protect the GOP Senate majority. Fox News highlights the broader midterm context, including Democrats' expansion into traditionally Republican states and a poll showing an 11-point preference for Democratic House candidates. Yahoo emphasizes the Cook Political Report's downgrade of Graham's chances, underscoring the competitive nature of the race. All sources agree on the significance of the race but differ in emphasis: AP and WLOS focus on Trump's involvement, Fox on the broader midterm landscape, and Yahoo on the specific polling and rating developments.

Why it matters

The South Carolina Senate race is a bellwether for the 2026 midterms, reflecting national trends in voter preference and party strategy. Trump's personal involvement and the Cook Report downgrade highlight the competitive nature of the race, which could influence the balance of power in the Senate. The broader context of Democrats targeting traditionally Republican states and Republicans defending their majority underscores the high stakes of the midterms.

What to watch

Watch for further campaign activities in South Carolina and other swing states in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 elections. Monitor polling data and any additional Cook Political Report updates, as well as the impact of high-profile campaign visits by figures like Kamala Harris and Bill Clinton on voter sentiment.