Vermont Governor Race Tightens as Scott’s Approval Plummets Amid Polling Discrepancies

Key points

• Vermont Public poll shows Scott leading Janoo 44% to 34% among likely voters, with 16% undecided.
• University of New Hampshire poll shows Janoo leading Scott 49% to 43%, declaring the race a statistical tie.
• Scott’s approval rating has fallen 15 points since 2022, with a 31-point drop among Democrats.
• Janoo, a first-time candidate, has built a grassroots movement and leads among women and college-educated voters.
• Scott’s campaign disputes UNH polling methods, calling them 'statistical malpractice,' while Janoo’s team cites on-the-ground support.

Background

Scott won his last three reelection bids by at least 40 points, including 73% in 2024. Vermont has not ousted an incumbent governor in over 60 years. Scott’s approval was 60% in 2022. Janoo announced her campaign in March 2026 and won the Democratic primary by a narrow margin.

How outlets are covering it

Vermont Public and Seven Days Vermont emphasize Scott’s narrowing lead and declining approval, especially among Democrats, attributing it to national polarization and voter fatigue. VTDigger highlights the UNH poll’s lead for Janoo and the 21-point swing from July. Scott’s campaign criticizes UNH’s methodology as flawed, while Janoo’s team frames the race as a rejection of the status quo. Experts note methodological differences, such as landline inclusion and likely voter definitions, may explain divergent results.

Why it matters

The race’s outcome could shift Vermont’s political balance, with Scott’s potential sixth term making him the state’s longest-serving governor. Janoo’s momentum signals a possible shift in voter sentiment, particularly among Democrats and younger, college-educated voters. The high number of undecided voters suggests the final weeks will be critical.

What to watch

Vermont Public will host a gubernatorial debate on Oct. 21. Both campaigns will focus on undecided voters in the final five weeks. Scott’s campaign will emphasize his 'affordability agenda' and criticize the Democratic-controlled Legislature, while Janoo will highlight her progressive policies on taxes and healthcare.