49ers and Bills Lead Early DVOA Rankings as Chargers and Dolphins Collapse

Key points

• San Francisco 49ers rank No. 1 in overall DVOA after two weeks, with a 78.0% total rating, fueled by wins over the Rams and Dolphins.
• Buffalo Bills rank No. 2 in DVOA (52.7%) and No. 2 in power rankings, led by Josh Allen, but rank 19th in defensive DVOA.
• Los Angeles Chargers are the most surprising 0-2 team, having lost as combined 16-point favorites, ranking 30th in DVOA and 28th in power rankings.
• Miami Dolphins rank last in DVOA (-69.5%) and 32nd in power rankings, posting one of the worst pass offense ratings in NFL history through two games.
• Cincinnati Bengals rise to No. 4 in power rankings after a 20-6 win over Houston, highlighted by a revamped defense allowing only 16.5 points per game.
• Atlanta Falcons rank 31st in DVOA and 30th in power rankings, struggling with backup quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Jack Strand before Michael Penix Jr. returns.

Background

The 49ers' strong start follows a near-perfect Week 2 performance by Brock Purdy (20/22, 287 yards, 2 TDs) against the Dolphins, as noted in our September 18 archive. The Falcons' quarterback uncertainty was highlighted in our September 15 coverage, where the team faced a decision on their starter after placing Cameron Williams on injured reserve. The 49ers and Rams also navigated post-Australia trip schedules, with the 49ers facing a tough run of opponents including the Cardinals and Broncos.

How outlets are covering it

FTN emphasizes the 49ers' and Bills' dominance in DVOA, highlighting the 49ers' top overall rating and the Bills' second-place finish despite defensive weaknesses. FTN also notes the Ravens' 'reverse PGWE' loss to the Saints, where underlying stats favored Baltimore. CBS Sports focuses on the Bengals' defensive improvement and the Seahawks' consistency, placing the Bills second in power rankings. USA Today highlights the Chargers' collapse as the most shocking 0-2 start, noting their heavy favorite status, and ranks the 49ers third in power rankings. All sources agree on the struggles of the Dolphins and Chargers, but differ on the relative strength of the 49ers and Bills, with FTN prioritizing DVOA efficiency and CBS/USA Today emphasizing power ranking momentum and defensive upgrades.

Why it matters

Early DVOA and power rankings indicate potential playoff contenders and teams at risk of early elimination. The 49ers and Bills are positioned as top contenders, while the Chargers and Dolphins face steep odds of recovery. The Bengals' defensive upgrade suggests they could be a dark horse, and the Falcons' quarterback situation will be critical for their season trajectory. These early metrics may influence betting lines, fantasy football decisions, and trade rumors, particularly for teams like the Chargers and Dolphins.

What to watch

The 49ers will face the Cardinals and Broncos in upcoming weeks, while the Bills prepare for a tough schedule including the Chargers. The Chargers face a brutal seven-game stretch that could end their season early. The Dolphins host the Chiefs in Week 3, and the Falcons await the return of Michael Penix Jr. The Bengals will test their new defense against the Steelers, and the Seahawks may welcome back Sam Darnold. Teams like the Ravens and Eagles will look to stabilize their offenses and defenses in the coming weeks.