"Commanders' Draft Dilemma: Evaluating Trade Offers for No. 2 Pick and Franchise QB Potential"

An analysis of the probabilities of drafting franchise quarterbacks in the first round from 2012 through 2021 suggests that the Washington NFL franchise has struggled to find a long-term starting quarterback. The study defines a franchise QB as one capable of leading the team to playoff contention and examines hit rates for both long-term starters and playoff winners. It reveals that the success rate for drafting long-term starters drops sharply after the top 10 picks, while the hit rate for drafting playoff-winning QBs is even lower. The analysis suggests that expectations for the Commanders' second overall pick should be tempered, and trading back to acquire more draft picks may not be as unreasonable as some suggest.