Maine Senate Race Tightens as Jackson Leads Polls Ahead of Ranked-Choice Vote
Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tight race against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine, with recent polls showing Jackson leading by 2 to 9 points. The contest is critical for Senate control, as Collins is the only Republican seeking reelection in a state Trump lost in 2024. Despite Jackson’s polling lead, many voters expect Collins to win, and the race may trigger ranked-choice voting due to close margins and write-in candidates.
Key points
- Jackson leads Collins by 3.3 points on average in RealClearPolitics polling as of Nov. 2, 2026.
- UNH’s Pine Tree State Poll shows Jackson at 54% vs. Collins at 45%, but 56% of voters expect Collins to win.
- NYT/Siena poll shows a 6-point swing for Jackson since September, now leading 51% to 45%.
- Collins is the only Republican running for reelection in a state Trump lost in 2024, making the race pivotal for Senate control.
- Ranked-choice voting may delay the official result until Nov. 13 due to tight polling and six write-in candidates.
Background
In September 2026, Collins held a narrow 3-point lead over Jackson, but polls shifted to a Democratic lead by early October. Recent debates highlighted disagreements over data center regulations, abortion, and energy costs, with Collins distancing herself from President Trump. The race remains a toss-up, with voters weighing Jackson’s policy stances against Collins’s record of securing federal funding for Maine.
How outlets are covering it
USA TODAY and WMTW emphasize Jackson’s polling lead but note voter expectations favor Collins. WABI highlights the 9-point swing for Jackson since September and the role of anti-Trump sentiment. Bangor Daily News focuses on geographic dynamics, noting Collins’s strength in southern Maine suburbs and Jackson’s roots in Aroostook County. All sources agree the race is critical for Senate control, but differ on the margin and voter sentiment.
Why it matters
The Maine Senate race could determine which party controls the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Collins’s ability to win in a state Trump lost in 2024 would be a significant achievement, while Jackson’s victory would signal a shift in Maine’s political landscape. The use of ranked-choice voting adds uncertainty, potentially delaying the result and influencing national power balance.
What to watch
Election Day is Nov. 3, 2026. If the race is too close to call, ranked-choice voting may trigger a runoff, with results potentially delayed until Nov. 13. Campaigns will focus on final outreach in southern Maine suburbs and Aroostook County, where both candidates have strong ties.
- Latest Maine Senate polls on Collins vs. Jackson ahead of midterms USA Today
- Susan Collins makes her last stand, showing off what she delivered for Maine The Washington Post
- What the final Pine Tree State Poll shows in Maine's major races WMTW
- Jackson, LePage, and Pingree lead in final polls WABI
- Susan Collins and Troy Jackson end their races in 2 places that decide Maine Bangor Daily News
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