Sunday's 2026 NBA Draft Lottery: Who Really Has the Best Shot at No. 1?

The NBA Draft Lottery for 2026 is Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the top four picks determined privately in Chicago by a 14-ball drawing; the rest of the order (5–14) is set by inverse regular-season records. The three worst teams (Wizards, Pacers, Nets) each own a 14% shot at No. 1, followed by Jazz and Kings at 11.5%, Grizzlies at 9%, and the Pelicans and Mavericks in the 6.7–6.8% range; the bottom teams have smaller odds down to 0.5% for No. 14. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa is widely pegged as a leading candidate for No. 1, though other top prospects and a potential swap scenario (Hawks with Pelicans’ pick via Bucks) add intrigue. The 2026 lottery marks the eighth year of the current format, with changes possible next year.