Israelis Face Historic Vote as Expatriates Return to Decide Netanyahu’s Fate

Key points

Israel holds elections on Oct. 27, the first since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is challenging for re-election against Gadi Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff.

Netanyahu’s coalition includes far-right and religious parties; Eisenkot promises a national inquiry into the Oct. 7 security failure and more diplomatic approaches.

Tens of thousands of Israeli expatriates are flying back to vote, as Israel does not allow absentee ballots; estimates suggest up to 67,000 may return.

The race is tight, with polls showing no clear path to a majority for either side, potentially leading to a stalemate or repeat election.

Netanyahu faces international arrest warrants for alleged war crimes and has blocked a domestic commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7 attacks.

Background

This election follows three years of conflict initiated by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, which killed nearly 1,200 Israelis and led to a prolonged war in Gaza that killed over 74,000 Palestinians. Previous coverage noted that Arab-led parties may be decisive in forming a government if no majority emerges. The U.S. Senate recently rejected symbolic resolutions demanding an end to the U.S. war with Iran, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions involving Israel’s regional conflicts.

How outlets are covering it

NPR emphasizes the deep societal division, highlighting how Israelis are torn between a desire for security and fear of global isolation. It notes that while many Israelis are impervious to Palestinian suffering, others are revolted by settler violence. AP News focuses on the logistical and political significance of expatriate voters, noting that many who left Israel due to democratic backsliding are returning to vote against Netanyahu. Both sources agree on the tight race but differ in emphasis: NPR highlights the trauma and moral dilemma of soldiers and citizens, while AP focuses on the democratic implications and the return of diaspora voters. Neither source suggests a clear winner, but both note the potential for a stalemate.

Why it matters

The election determines the future direction of Israel’s military and diplomatic strategy. A Netanyahu victory could lead to further escalation, including potential strikes on Iran, while an Eisenkot victory might prioritize diplomacy and a national inquiry into the Oct. 7 failures. The outcome also affects Israel’s international standing, as the country faces growing isolation and legal challenges over its conduct in Gaza. For the diaspora, the vote is seen as a chance to preserve Israel’s democratic character and reverse the hard-right turn in policy.

What to watch

If neither candidate secures a majority, Israel may face a repeat election in 2027, allowing Netanyahu to remain in power with full authority. Eisenkot has pledged to launch a national commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7 security failure and to pursue diplomatic agreements, though he has cautioned that troop withdrawals from Gaza and Lebanon will not be immediate. The role of Arab-led parties as potential kingmakers remains critical in forming a coalition.