Mali's junta braces for a defining test after rebels strike Bamako and seize Kidal

Mali's ruling junta faces its most serious test in years after a coordinated rebel offensive by the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM saw rebels strike Bamako, seize key northern city Kidal, and threaten further gains, including Gao and Timbuktu. The defence minister was killed, and Malian and Russian forces reportedly withdrew from Kidal, prompting questions about the junta’s durability and Moscow-backed security strategy. Analysts outline scenarios ranging from the junta staying in power with expanded partnerships (Turkey, the US, AES) to potential shifts in leadership or a power-sharing arrangement with rebel groups, with Russia’s influence hanging in the balance.