Rassvet setbacks slow Russia’s Starlink rival, raising questions on orbital viability

Russia’s second batch of Rassvet satellites failed to reach their intended 550–870 km orbit, with most satellites ending up at 300–400 km or decaying and only about 37.5% of launched satellites reaching sustainable altitude. The setback complicates Moscow’s plan to deploy a Starlink-like constellation, as launch tempo and Ukrainian strikes on production/launch infrastructure threaten timelines for “hundreds” of satellites. Even a partially working system could enhance battlefield communications, but Russia is unlikely to achieve 24/7 connectivity in the near term. Separately, Putin appears to back covert mobilization ahead of September elections, Arctic/NATO deterrence rhetoric persists, and there are signs of limited bilateral talks to end the war, all amid ongoing Ukrainian and Russian operations.