Carney’s Liberals Win Three By-Elections, Solidifying Support Amid US Trade War

Key points

• The Liberal party won all three by-elections in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (Quebec), Beaches-East York (Ontario), and North Vancouver-Capilano (British Columbia).
• Daniel Gobeil won the Quebec seat, previously held by the Conservatives, with over 50% of the vote, marking a dramatic shift in a region heavily affected by US tariffs.
• Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, won the British Columbia seat, while Tanveer Shahnawaz retained the Ontario seat.
• The results bring the Liberal party to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, strengthening Carney’s slim majority.
• The Conservative party fell to third place in the Quebec race, with their vote share dropping to approximately 13% in that riding.

Background

These by-elections were called after the previous holders of the three seats resigned earlier in 2026. The political landscape has been heavily influenced by the collapse of US-Canada trade talks in August 2026, which led to 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. Carney has since accelerated efforts to deepen economic ties with Europe, including a recent trip to Strasbourg for the EU State of the Union, signaling a strategic pivot away from reliance on the US.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian and BBC emphasize the sweep as a direct endorsement of Carney’s combative stance against Donald Trump, particularly his decision to walk away from trade negotiations. The Guardian highlights the 'dramatic shift' in Quebec, while the BBC notes that Carney’s approval ratings have risen by four points in recent weeks, driven by public anger over US actions. CBC provides logistical details on early voting, noting high turnout in North Vancouver-Capilano. Global News frames the event as a test of Carney’s ability to maintain his majority amidst ongoing trade tensions. Political analysts like Daniel Béland (McGill University) and David Coletto (Abacus Data) interpret the results as evidence of Carney’s strong personal popularity, especially in Quebec, where the Conservatives have struggled to recover from their loss in the previous federal election. The BBC also notes that four Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to the Liberals since the April 2025 election, further weakening the opposition.

Why it matters

The by-election results provide a critical gauge of public sentiment in Canada during a period of intense trade friction with the United States. The Liberal victory, particularly in Quebec, suggests that voters are supporting Carney’s strategy of resisting US pressure and seeking alternative economic partners. Conversely, the Conservative collapse in Quebec signals a significant challenge for opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, who has faced questions about his ability to navigate the current political climate. The outcome reinforces Carney’s position to pursue a more independent economic path, potentially reshaping Canada’s trade relationships in the coming years.

What to watch

The Liberal party will now hold 173 seats in the House of Commons, strengthening its majority. Carney is expected to continue his efforts to deepen economic ties with Europe and other partners, as signaled by his recent trip to Strasbourg. The Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre, will face internal pressure to reassess its strategy in light of the poor performance in the by-elections. The US-Canada trade dispute remains unresolved, with 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in effect and no immediate signs of a resolution. Carney’s government may continue to retaliate with tariffs on US products, as previously announced, while seeking to mitigate the economic impact through new trade agreements.