Joby Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to $140M Amid FAA Certification Milestones

Key points

• Q3 2026 revenue reached $55 million, with the majority generated by the Blade passenger service, which carried over 44,000 passengers in the quarter.
• Joby raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by 15% to a range of $135 million–$140 million, reflecting increased manufacturing output and government contract activity.
• The company completed 'for credit' testing for the fifth and final stage of FAA type certification, a critical step toward commercial operations.
• Joby expanded its autonomy-focused contracts with the U.S. Air Force to approximately $37 million and announced the planned acquisition of Resonant Sciences, a defense technology firm with over $100 million in trailing twelve-month revenue.
• The company holds $2.2 billion in cash and short-term investments as of September 30, 2026, and expects to use between $385 million and $415 million in cash for the second half of 2026.

Background

Joby Aviation has faced significant market skepticism regarding the commercialization timeline for electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. In January 2026, the company issued new shares and convertible notes, diluting existing shareholders. While the stock has fallen 72% from its 52-week high, Joby has continued to advance its certification process and expand its defense business. The company previously raised its 2026 revenue forecast in August, signaling growing confidence in its commercial and government contract pipeline.

How outlets are covering it

Investing.com highlights investor focus on the Dubai launch timeline and notes that analysts expect a sequential revenue decline from the second quarter, with a consensus neutral rating and a mean price target of $10.01. Yahoo Finance emphasizes the company's widening operating losses, noting that free cash flow was negative $743 million in the trailing twelve months, and points out that Joby’s market capitalization remains 40 times its sales, suggesting high expectations for future growth. Joby’s own release focuses on operational milestones, including the first fully autonomous cross-country flight of its J208 aircraft and the expansion of its manufacturing output to 17 aircraft in production.

Why it matters

Joby’s progress in FAA certification and its expansion into defense contracts are critical for validating the commercial viability of eVTOL technology. The company’s ability to generate revenue through its Blade division and secure government contracts may determine whether it can achieve profitability before its cash reserves are depleted. The upcoming Dubai launch is a key indicator of whether Joby can transition from a pre-revenue manufacturer to a commercial operator.

What to watch

Joby will host a live audio webcast on November 4, 2026, to discuss its third-quarter results. The company aims to launch its first commercial passenger service in Dubai before the end of 2026. Investors will closely monitor the company’s cash burn rate and progress in finalizing FAA certification, as well as the integration of Resonant Sciences into its defense business.