JPMorgan trims gold outlook on cooler demand, eyes second-half rebound

JPMorgan cut its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,243/oz from $5,708 due to softer near-term demand, but keeps a bullish longer-term view with a year-end target around $6,000/oz; the pullback is seen as a pause, with demand expected to reaccelerate in H2 as inflation tail risks ease after potential Iran-related D/E developments and a possible Strait of Hormuz reopening. The bank also trimmed its 2026 central-bank purchases to 640 tonnes and ETF inflows to about 400 tonnes, while warning that a strong U.S. jobs market and higher inflation could prompt Fed rate hikes and ETF outflows. Gold remains range-bound near $4,340–$4,730, with catalysts including geopolitical developments and policy signals shaping the path to a recovery.