tldrdailynews.com logo
Tag

Commodities

All articles tagged with #commodities

Forced sovereign liquidations could ignite gold’s next long-term bull run, says SPI's Innes
business6 hours ago

Forced sovereign liquidations could ignite gold’s next long-term bull run, says SPI's Innes

SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes argues the gold selloff was a liquidity crisis driven by forced sovereign sales amid the oil shock, not a collapse in demand. As inflation cools and growth slows, central banks may ease policy, potentially setting up a new long-term gold bull run with gold serving as monetary insurance in a fractured, underinvested global economy—an outlook reinforced by China’s reserve diversification strategy.

via KITCO|
#business#central-banks#commodities
commodities8 days ago

JPMorgan trims gold outlook on cooler demand, eyes second-half rebound

JPMorgan cut its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,243/oz from $5,708 due to softer near-term demand, but keeps a bullish longer-term view with a year-end target around $6,000/oz; the pullback is seen as a pause, with demand expected to reaccelerate in H2 as inflation tail risks ease after potential Iran-related D/E developments and a possible Strait of Hormuz reopening. The bank also trimmed its 2026 central-bank purchases to 640 tonnes and ETF inflows to about 400 tonnes, while warning that a strong U.S. jobs market and higher inflation could prompt Fed rate hikes and ETF outflows. Gold remains range-bound near $4,340–$4,730, with catalysts including geopolitical developments and policy signals shaping the path to a recovery.

via Investing.com|
#commodities#demand#etf-inflows
Oil prices stay flat as US exports offset China demand drop
markets15 days ago

Oil prices stay flat as US exports offset China demand drop

Despite a major Middle East supply disruption and the Strait of Hormuz closure, oil prices have remained relatively flat as the United States boosts exports and China reduces imports, aided by high inventories and inventory-driven destocking by traders. Morgan Stanley notes US seaborne exports rose to about 8.9 million barrels per day while China’s net imports fell sharply, helping shield the world from the supply shock. The base case projects a partial reopening of flows by late summer and full normalization by year-end, likely keeping Brent near current levels; a prolonged outage could trigger demand destruction and push Brent toward roughly $130–$150 a barrel if the disruption persists.

via Financial Times|
#china-imports#commodities#markets
Silver at CPI Crossroads: Inflation Data Could Make or Break the Rally
forecasts15 days ago

Silver at CPI Crossroads: Inflation Data Could Make or Break the Rally

Silver surged to its strongest weekly gain of the year as yields fell, the dollar weakened, and oil cooled, but Tuesday’s CPI report will determine whether the rally continues or reverses. A softer inflation print and lower yields could carry XAG toward the $83.06–$83.61 area, while a hotter-than-expected CPI could lift yields and the dollar, signaling a pullback toward $78.72 and potentially toward the $72–$70 zone if selling accelerates. The piece emphasizes the rally is driven by rate dynamics and industrial demand, with price volatility likely as inflation data and Fed expectations remain in play.

via FXEmpire|
#commodities#forecasts#fundamental
Bond King Gundlach bets on cash and gold as 2026 rate cuts fade
business17 days ago

Bond King Gundlach bets on cash and gold as 2026 rate cuts fade

Jeff Gundlach, the 'Bond King' and DoubleLine Capital CIO, recommends a portfolio with about 20% cash and 20% real assets (including commodities and gold) as he expects no Fed rate cuts in 2026; he warns that stocks look pricey given upside risk to rates and advises avoiding risk assets until rate paths become clearer, noting gold could be bought aggressively if it falls below $3,500/oz and that gold trades around $4,750/oz today.

via Business Insider|
#business#cash#commodities
Oil’s buffer erosion could trigger a sudden price spike as Hormuz stays closed
business21 days ago

Oil’s buffer erosion could trigger a sudden price spike as Hormuz stays closed

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil trades above $100 as stockpiles and floating storage cushion the market, but buffers are fading. Analysts warn inventories could reach operational floors by June, turning a gradual adjustment into a forced squeeze that could drive prices much higher, potentially to $150 a barrel, if the disruption persists.

via Financial Times|
#business#commodities#energy
US fuel shock outpaces G7 as Iran conflict rattles pumps
global-economy24 days ago

US fuel shock outpaces G7 as Iran conflict rattles pumps

The Iran crisis has triggered the sharpest fuel-price surge in the US among G7 economies, with petrol up about 42% since late February to an average of $4.39 a gallon and diesel up 48% to $5.57, even as major producers pause output increases. JPMorgan notes US prices are pressured by exports to Asia and thinning inventories, while higher taxes and subsidies abroad cushion pump-price swings elsewhere. The rise comes ahead of the summer driving season and poses inflation and political risks for President Trump, despite the US still generally paying less per litre than Canada or the UK.

via Financial Times|
#commodities#global-economy#middle-east-war
Goldman warns oil could near $120 if Gulf disruption endures
markets29 days ago

Goldman warns oil could near $120 if Gulf disruption endures

Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude could average about $90 a barrel in Q4 if Gulf exports normalize, but if shipments remain disrupted through July and Gulf production remains constrained (about 500,000 barrels per day scarred), Brent could approach $120 and WTI around $83. Prices surged after peace-talk doubts, Brent hitting $108.50 intraday and trading around $106–$107, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked; analysts warn of broader economic fallout, potential US export restrictions, and longer-term supply scarring, with Morgan Stanley echoing upside risks amid ongoing supply tightness.

via Financial Times|
#commodities#energy#goldman-sachs
commodities1 month ago

Oil slips as US-Iran talks gain traction, easing supply fears

Oil prices fell by around $1 as markets reassessed supply risks tied to potential progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks, with Brent at about $94.44 a barrel and WTI near $87.95 for the front month (June around $86.18). The market had rallied earlier on Iran’s Strait of Hormuz disruption and a U.S. cargo seizure, but the outlook now hinges on whether talks extend the ceasefire and avert further supply shocks; Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments, and Citi warned disruptions could persist into late 2026, underscoring that the supply risk remains.

via Investing.com|
#commodities#oil#strait-of-hormuz
Oil traders take billions in losses as Iran war unsettles markets
business1 month ago

Oil traders take billions in losses as Iran war unsettles markets

Oliver Wyman’s analysis finds commodity trading groups lost billions at the start of the Iran war after bets on falling energy prices misread the market; the surprise jump in Brent as ships were trapped and cargo replacements surged triggered heavy margin calls and losses on physical shipments, some of which have since been reversed for Vitol, Trafigura and Mercuria. Trading houses also boosted working capital (Vitol and Trafigura ~$3bn each; Gunvor ~$1.5bn). Last year’s industry earnings fell to about $92bn (the lowest since 2021), with metals trading up and oil desk profits down; baseline annual earnings are projected at $90-110bn excluding geopolitics.

via Financial Times|
#business#commodities#energy-sector
commodities2 months ago

Oil climbs as Iran conflict tests supply fears, but weekly decline looms

Oil prices rose on Friday but markets were set for their first weekly decline since the Iran‑led conflict began, with Brent around $109.88 a barrel and WTI near $96. The market remains focused on potential duration of the war and disruption to global supplies (the IEA says roughly 11 million barrels per day have been removed from supply). Trump paused attacks on Iranian energy facilities and weighing ground action to seize Kharg Island, keeping fears of prolonged disruption — and a possible spike in prices if fighting intensifies — while some analysts see potential for a decline if de‑escalation occurs, keeping prices above pre-crisis levels.

via Investing.com|
#brent-crude#commodities#iran-conflict