85-Year Pattern Signals Trump-Era Pullback, Not an Impending Crash

A Motley Fool analysis argues there’s no guaranteed stock-market crash under President Trump, but 85 years of history show energy-disruption shocks (e.g., Suez, 1973 oil embargo, Strait of Hormuz) are the main catalysts for sharp declines. Most shocks are followed by gains within a year (roughly 3% on average), though about two-thirds end higher after 12 months. The current environment—tariffs, geopolitical tension, and energy disruption—raises the risk of a meaningful near-term pullback and could damp long-term returns if inflation (aka Trumpflation) remains sticky. In short: not imminent, but elevated downside risk.)