Immaculate Market Faces Seasonal Reality Check Amid Midterm Risks
TL;DR Summary
Despite a near-record run in the stock market fueled by a strong earnings season (EPS beat rates around 86%, the best since 2021), BTIG strategist Jonathan Krinsky warns that midterm-election years historically bring a meaningful pullback in August–October (about 7% or more in several past instances). With the S&P 500 benefiting from robust Q2 results, investors should consider trimming risk or hedging broad equity exposure as this historically difficult period approaches.
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- Prediction markets see a divided government after midterm elections. Here’s how you should trade, Citi says. MarketWatch
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