Market Optimism Rides on China's Surprise Move.

Markets are cautiously optimistic ahead of updates on Chinese economic growth and global PMIs, along with the Fed's Beige book and at least eight Fed speakers. Analysts are generally optimistic for the China data given the stunning strength of recent trade figures. Meanwhile, the CME Fedwatch Tool caused a brief stir this morning when it showed the probability of a Fed hike on May 3 at a dead cert 98%. Markets have shifted even further on the ECB to price in a 46% chance it will hike by a full 50 basis points on May 4. Quarterly bank results, especially for U.S. regional banks, should also offer a first glimpse of the fallout from the March turmoil and the related tightening of lending conditions.