Mixed Signals: Investor Skepticism and Bullishness Clash in Stock Market Rally

The S&P 500 has a history of delivering positive returns one year after hitting a new 52-week high, according to Ryan Detrick, the Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Based on data from Carson Investment Research, there have been 15 prior instances since 1950 where the S&P 500 endured at least a 12-month stretch without hitting a 52-week high. In 15 out of 15 instances, the S&P 500 was higher one year later, with an average return of 17.4%. However, there is mounting evidence that suggests the "new" bull market might be nothing more than a sizable bear market rally, including a recession probability tool from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and declining lending metrics and M2 money supply.