Navigating a Looming Recession: Tips and Insights.

Bank of America strategists have pointed to the inverted Treasury yield curves as a highly-watched signal of an incoming recession, with the inverted 2-10 spread correctly predicting the recessions of 1990, 2001, and 2008. The analysts say that historically, a recession kicks off six months after the inversion of the 2-10 year curve. Given that those bond yields inverted in November of last year, the recession should be arriving in May. The spread on the 3-month and 10-year yields have "barely" steepened, but if the inversion between those treasury yields were to deepen in the following weeks, that would be a strong indicator that a recession is starting in the second quarter, the bank said.