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Recession

All articles tagged with #recession

Walmart Recession Signal Flashes Warning of a Slowing US Economy
business11 days ago

Walmart Recession Signal Flashes Warning of a Slowing US Economy

A veteran market strategist says the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS)—which compares Walmart's stock to a luxury-stock basket—has surged to its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis and has historically risen before past US downturns. The gauge suggests stress on lower- and middle-income shoppers, rising private-credit concerns, and softer hiring and housing activity, signaling a potential significant US slowdown, though a swift Iran-war resolution could avert a recession.

via businessinsider.com|
#business#consumer-spending#economic-indicator
Wall Street Faces Rising Recession Odds Amid War and Oil Shock
business17 days ago

Wall Street Faces Rising Recession Odds Amid War and Oil Shock

Geopolitical tensions with Iran and rising oil prices have lifted recession risk expectations on Wall Street, with Moody’s Analytics at 48.6%, Goldman Sachs at 30%, Wilmington Trust at 45%, and EY Parthenon at 40%; economists warn the odds are elevated though not certain, driven by a fragile labor market and inflation pressures, while a diplomatic resolution or policy support could help avert a downturn.

via CNBC|
#business#federal-reserve#geopolitics
Oil at About $125/Barrel Could Push US Economy Toward Recession, Zandi Warns
business17 days ago

Oil at About $125/Barrel Could Push US Economy Toward Recession, Zandi Warns

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says US recession risk is rising and could be triggered if oil averages about $125 per barrel in Q2; their simulations identify that level as a plausible tipping point amid Iran tensions and a weak labor market. Although not predicting an outright downturn in their baseline outlook, higher oil prices have shaved roughly 15–20 basis points from 2026 real GDP growth, and their April forecast expects a further rise in oil prices that would weigh on growth and push recession probabilities higher.

via Business Insider|
#business#gdp-growth#mark-zandi
Oil Shocks and Recession Risk: The Iran Conflict’s Economic Backdraft
business22 days ago

Oil Shocks and Recession Risk: The Iran Conflict’s Economic Backdraft

Catherine Rampell argues the Iran war has sparked an energy shock that could slow growth and cost jobs: higher and more volatile oil and fuel prices reduce consumer spending, pushing the economy toward recession even if a downturn isn’t inevitable. Attacks on energy infrastructure threaten long‑term supply disruptions, and policy tools are constrained (rate cuts could worsen inflation, fiscal relief risks adding inflation), making a quick fix unlikely. The piece also notes other looming risks—like an AI bubble and private‑credit strains—that could amplify any downturn if they unfold, though none are guaranteed.

via The Bulwark|
#business#energy-security#geopolitics
Moody’s Flags Recession Risk Climbing Toward 50% on Oil Shock
economy25 days ago

Moody’s Flags Recession Risk Climbing Toward 50% on Oil Shock

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the odds of a U.S. recession are a “serious threat,” with the probability potentially rising above 50% in the next 12 months as oil and gas prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict; before the flare‑up, the model put odds at about 48.6%, and historically nearly every recession since WWII followed a spike in oil prices (except the pandemic). Goldman Sachs meanwhile assigns a 25% recession risk over the next year after a weak February jobs report (−92,000 payrolls vs. +50,000 expected) with the unemployment rate at 4.4%. While higher oil prices can weigh on activity, the U.S.’s status as a net exporter and domestic supply can dampen the impact somewhat. The outlook remains uncertain for investors.

via TipRanks|
#economy#mark-zandi#moodys
Oil Breaks $100 Amid Hormuz Turmoil, Sparking Market Warnings
business1 month ago

Oil Breaks $100 Amid Hormuz Turmoil, Sparking Market Warnings

Oil futures top $100 as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz tightens crude shipments, with Gulf producers cutting output and limited spare capacity. Analysts warn the situation could push inflation higher and raise the risk of a recession, depending on how long the strait remains blocked and how quickly supply normalizes — potentially taking months to resume steady flows.

via Business Insider|
#business#energy-markets#inflation
Japan posts 0.1% Q4 growth, narrowly dodges recession but misses forecasts
economy1 month ago

Japan posts 0.1% Q4 growth, narrowly dodges recession but misses forecasts

Japan's economy grew 0.1% in Q4 2025, narrowly avoiding a technical recession (annualized +0.2%) but missing economists' 0.4% forecast; private consumption led the gain while exports and public spending lagged, and the BOJ lifted its 2026 growth outlook. The release comes as Tokyo and Washington push a $550 billion investment pledge under their trade deal, with currency moves and domestic politics shaping sentiment.

via CNBC|
#boj#economy#gdp
Stock Market Outlook and Predictions for 2026
business3 months ago

Stock Market Outlook and Predictions for 2026

The article predicts a volatile 2026 with major stock indices likely to decline by at least 20%, a shift of the Federal Reserve from stabilizer to liability, the resurgence of stagflation, a burst of the quantum computing bubble, sector rotations favoring consumer staples over tech, Meta Platforms' potential stock split, Nvidia's decline in market cap, tariffs impacting earnings, record share buybacks, and SpaceX's IPO possibly surpassing all previous records.

via The Motley Fool|
#2026-predictions#business#recession