All articles tagged with #recession
President Trump’s plan to halt trade with countries that run a U.S. deficit could trigger a severe recession by ending trade with 95 nations; economists say deficits aren’t a government savings account and stopping trade would hurt American businesses and tax revenues.
Supergirl’s disappointing box-office performance is being framed as a potential indicator of a broader slowdown in superhero films, prompting industry watchers to reassess audience appetite, franchise strategies, and DC’s upcoming slate as studios recalibrate risk and investment in the genre.
Gail Tverberg argues that Iran-related oil disruptions could deplete buffer supplies and trigger a global recession, potentially pushing oil prices below $40 rather than driving them higher, as demand is constrained and supply chains adjust; she frames the outcome through the lens of a self-organizing economy, noting price lag, government interventions, and the historical pattern where war can seem to “solve” economic stress by boosting employment, not price spikes.
All 32 large U.S. banks would remain above minimum capital requirements in the Fed’s annual stress test, even under a scenario that would produce over $708 billion in losses in a severe recession. The common equity tier 1 ratio fell only 1.6 percentage points, and the Fed said it will keep current capital buffers unchanged through 2027 as it reworks methodology, reshaping how much capital firms must hold in downturns.
Moody’s Mark Zandi says Trump has only days to clinch a deal with Iran to avoid a sharp oil-price spike and potential recession, as Iran threatens to halt talks and block the Strait of Hormuz; dwindling U.S. oil stockpiles and high crude prices could push gas toward $5 a gallon if no deal materializes.
CNN’s SSRS poll of 1,499 US adults (April 30–May 4) finds Americans feel economically stuck due to high prices and living costs; most say wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, households cut grocery and discretionary spending and struggle to save, and about three-quarters view the economic system as unfair. Roughly 70% expect a recession within a year, highlighting the economy’s prominence in political debates ahead of the midterms.
Despite a stock rally, energy expert Amrita Sen warns that the oil shock stemming from the U.S.–Iran conflict could push the global economy toward a big recession; supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and symbolic OPEC production hikes may keep oil tight, potentially forcing a demand cut of around 10 million barrels per day and Brent’s floor to about $80–$90 per barrel, with inflation risks persisting in Europe and a mixed but bullish note on SPY for now.
Economist Gary Shilling says a US recession is almost inevitable this year and the S&P 500 could drop as much as 30% by year-end 2026, citing stretched valuations (Shiller CAPE near highs, price-to-sales/book at record levels), a cooling consumer, a frozen housing market due to higher rates, and weak business investment outside AI-related capex. He argues only a fiscal stimulus burst or unexpectedly strong consumer demand could avert a downturn, both unlikely, signaling a significant market correction in the near term.
Trump says the Iran ceasefire will be indefinite, with no end date in sight, while a top economist warns the U.S. faces about a 40% chance of recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, due to energy disruptions; markets wobble and oil stays elevated as the conflict drags on.
The IMF says the world will face a global oil shortfall this year even if the Iran war ends soon, noting the March disruption was the largest in history. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook trims 2026 global growth to 3.1% with inflation around 4.4%, but a longer war or oil-price spikes could push growth to about 2% and raise recession risk. Iran’s actions have effectively blocked Hormuz, affecting roughly one-fifth of world crude supply, which could drive up fuel costs and inflation, prompting warnings of an energy crisis and calls from leaders for an end to the conflict.
A veteran market strategist says the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS)—which compares Walmart's stock to a luxury-stock basket—has surged to its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis and has historically risen before past US downturns. The gauge suggests stress on lower- and middle-income shoppers, rising private-credit concerns, and softer hiring and housing activity, signaling a potential significant US slowdown, though a swift Iran-war resolution could avert a recession.
Geopolitical tensions with Iran and rising oil prices have lifted recession risk expectations on Wall Street, with Moody’s Analytics at 48.6%, Goldman Sachs at 30%, Wilmington Trust at 45%, and EY Parthenon at 40%; economists warn the odds are elevated though not certain, driven by a fragile labor market and inflation pressures, while a diplomatic resolution or policy support could help avert a downturn.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says US recession risk is rising and could be triggered if oil averages about $125 per barrel in Q2; their simulations identify that level as a plausible tipping point amid Iran tensions and a weak labor market. Although not predicting an outright downturn in their baseline outlook, higher oil prices have shaved roughly 15–20 basis points from 2026 real GDP growth, and their April forecast expects a further rise in oil prices that would weigh on growth and push recession probabilities higher.
Catherine Rampell argues the Iran war has sparked an energy shock that could slow growth and cost jobs: higher and more volatile oil and fuel prices reduce consumer spending, pushing the economy toward recession even if a downturn isn’t inevitable. Attacks on energy infrastructure threaten long‑term supply disruptions, and policy tools are constrained (rate cuts could worsen inflation, fiscal relief risks adding inflation), making a quick fix unlikely. The piece also notes other looming risks—like an AI bubble and private‑credit strains—that could amplify any downturn if they unfold, though none are guaranteed.
Economists in CNBC's Fed Survey expect oil to hold around $88 a barrel in six months and foresee roughly 1.8 Fed rate cuts this year, a dovish tilt versus futures; they anticipate modest inflation with growth dampened by oil shocks, a higher but still contained recession risk (~31%), and growing concern about private credit and systemic risk.