Navigating the Stock Market's Hot Streak: Tips for a Strong Second Half

The blistering stock returns in the first half of this year make a strong case for a bullish second half, according to historical data. Over the past 95 years, in 61 years the S&P 500 had positive returns in the first half, with nearly half of those years seeing double-digit percentage gains. On average, the second half of these years returned 6% with a win rate of 75%. Looking specifically at years following negative results, the average second-half return was 9.8% with a win rate of 80%. While mean reversion is a factor, the overall trend suggests that the strength seen in the first half tends to continue.