Sandisk 2030 Outlook: About $2,000 a Share, but Not a Market-Beating Bet

The Motley Fool argues Sandisk could reach roughly $2,000 per share by 2030 if its AI-driven memory business sustains peak profitability. The model envisions about $64–$69B in revenue in 2030 with gross margins near 80% and free cash flow around 50% of revenue (roughly $33B), which, at 12–15x FCF, implies a value of $400–$495B or about $2,700–$3,400 per share today—potentially 50%–90% total return over four years. However, if memory cycles downturn, 2030 FCF could drop to about $16B, valuing Sandisk at $160–$190B or ~$1,100–$1,300 per share, meaning the current ~$1,790 price prices in much of the upside. The piece notes eight long-term supply contracts could cushion a downturn, but the thesis rests on four years of peak economics, and Sandisk isn’t listed among Fool’s current top stock picks.