Trump’s push for cheaper money meets a cautious Fed under Warsh

Trump’s bid for lower interest rates faces a setback as the Fed, led by Kevin Warsh, is expected to hold rates or possibly hike, with inflation around 3.5% and energy pressures from Middle East tensions complicating the path back to 2%. Analysts note Warsh could move to tighten to preserve credibility, even as markets largely price in a hold this week and anticipate further 25-bp hikes later in the year (September, October, December). The outcome hinges on evolving inflation data and geopolitical oil disruptions.