China’s Housing Slump Echoes Japan, But Path Ahead Remains Unclear

FT Alphaville shows China’s housing bust could trigger real-economy spillovers—weaker consumption, tighter local budgets from land sales, and potential bank stress—because housing accounts for a large share of private wealth and household debt. Using Rogoff-Yang’s dataset and city-level data, the piece compares the trajectory to Japan’s 1990s bust, suggesting a Japan-like long adjustment or a US-like shorter downturn, with much still to come.