China’s Housing Slump Echoes Japan, But Path Ahead Remains Unclear
TL;DR
FT Alphaville shows China’s housing bust could trigger real-economy spillovers—weaker consumption, tighter local budgets from land sales, and potential bank stress—because housing accounts for a large share of private wealth and household debt. Using Rogoff-Yang’s dataset and city-level data, the piece compares the trajectory to Japan’s 1990s bust, suggesting a Japan-like long adjustment or a US-like shorter downturn, with much still to come.
- China is not Japan Financial Times
- Nine in 10 families in China own a home. But is the property-owning dream being tested? CNN
- Housing Notes Weekly Roundup housingnotes.com
- China’s real estate reckoning: Lessons from Japan’s lost decade CEPR
- Housing Notes: Chinese consumers prefer existing housing over new development The Real Deal
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