SpaceX Shares Slip 30% From IPO Peak, History Hints at More Downturn

SpaceX stock has fallen about 30% from its mid‑June post‑IPO high as investors weigh heavy AI‑driven spending and looming lock‑ups. The company posted a 2Q revenue jump to $7.8B driven by AI momentum, but reported a staggering -$25B free cash flow in H1 2026, fueling burn‑rate concerns as it ramps up AI capex. An expanding float—from 1.8B to 5.2B by December due to lock‑up expirations—could add selling pressure. Historically, large IPOs have struggled in the first year, with patterns suggesting further downside (some models point to around $89 by June 2027), though analysts still see upside with a median target near $217 in 12 months. The piece advises patient investors to consider only a very small initial position given the uncertainties and dependence on future results and sentiment.