Bitcoin Dominance Nears 60% as Traders Load Up on Leverage Ahead of Jobs Data
Bitcoin traded above $86,000 on Oct. 2, 2026, rising 3.4% as its market dominance approached 60%. This shift from stablecoins to tokens signaled a risk-on sentiment among traders. While the broader crypto market saw gains, smaller assets like AAVE and APT outperformed. Rising open interest and funding rates indicated increased leveraged bullish positions, though $344 million in liquidations highlighted volatility risks. The market awaited the U.S. jobs report, with economists expecting 90,000 new jobs in September. A stronger report could raise Treasury yields and pressure bitcoin, while a weaker one might support risk assets. Analysts noted that a 10-year real yield above 3% could trigger a retest of the $80,000 to $82,000 range. Lower odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently at 30%, supported the rally. However, profit-taking hit some tokens like Quant, which fell 15%. The jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, was seen as a key catalyst for the next move in crypto prices.
Key points
- Bitcoin rose 3.4% to over $86,000, with its market dominance nearing 60%.
- USDT's market share slipped to 6.3%, indicating a shift from cash to tokens.
- Open interest for bitcoin increased to $22.4 billion, and funding rates spiked on some venues.
- Economists expected the U.S. to add 90,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August.
- A 10-year real yield above 3% could pressure bitcoin, potentially causing a retest of $80,000 to $82,000.
- The odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October dropped to 30% from 70%.
Background
In August 2026, bitcoin surged to around $78,200, supported by macro factors and regulatory chatter, including Trump's push for a crypto framework and the Clarity Act. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong forecasted bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $400,000 by 2030. In September, bitcoin consolidated near $86,000, with Bitcoin Cash surging 32% on a CME listing. The current risk-on mode and dominance shift build on this momentum, with traders increasingly positioning for potential gains as macro data, such as the jobs report, is awaited.
Why it matters
The shift in bitcoin dominance and the rise in leveraged positions indicate a growing appetite for risk in the crypto market. This could lead to higher volatility, especially as the U.S. jobs report and subsequent CPI data may influence Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy. A stronger jobs report could pressure bitcoin, while a weaker one might support it. The current positioning suggests that traders are betting on a favorable macro environment, but the risk of liquidations and volatility remains high. This dynamic could impact the broader crypto market and investor sentiment in the coming weeks.
What to watch
The U.S. jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 2, 2026, will be a key catalyst for the crypto market. A stronger-than-forecast report could raise Treasury yields and pressure bitcoin, while a weaker one might support risk assets. The Oct. 14 consumer price index report will also be watched for its impact on longer-dated yields. Analysts are monitoring a 10-year real yield of about 3% as a key level. If yields rise above this, a retest of the $80,000 to $82,000 range for bitcoin is more likely. The market will also watch for any changes in the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently at 30%.
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