Goldman Sachs flags rising bear-market risk and lays out trades to weather it

Goldman Sachs warns rising bear-market risk from elevated oil prices, outlining scenarios where the S&P 500 could slip to about 6,300 in a moderate-growth shock or to around 5,400 in a severe oil-supply shock (with P/E multiples falling to about 19x and 16x, respectively). While keeping a 7,600 year-end target, the firm shifts its U.S. equity stance to higher-quality, secular growers—overweight healthcare and materials, avoid middle-income consumer and non-residential construction exposures, and favor cybersecurity names (PANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZS, CHKP) and select green-energy/AI beneficiaries—arguing against a full defensive rotation.