SpaceX Slides Below IPO Price as CZ Defends Stake Amid Lockup Fears

Key points

• SpaceX closed at $134.72, dipping below its June listing price of $135.
• Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated he will hold SpaceX shares long-term, denying reports of selling his $1 billion position.
• The stock has lost over $500 billion in market value since its October 6 peak, dropping from a $2.3 trillion valuation to approximately $1.8 trillion.
• Options markets price a 14% price swing, expecting a range between $117 and $155 by mid-December.
• The final batch of locked-up shares becomes sellable on December 8, potentially increasing supply.
• Wall Street analysts maintain an average price target of $250.34, representing 86% upside from current levels.

Background

SpaceX’s recent volatility follows a broader tech sector correction and heightened scrutiny of AI valuations. Earlier this month, markets saw a rebound driven by Anthropic’s IPO filing, but SpaceX has since lagged peers like Rocket Lab. The company’s valuation has been heavily influenced by its pivot toward AI infrastructure, with Anthropic accounting for a significant portion of its revenue. Previous lockup expirations in August saw a price increase, but the current sell-off contrasts with that trend, reflecting broader market caution regarding high-growth tech stocks.

How outlets are covering it

BeInCrypto emphasizes the disconnect between CZ’s bullish sentiment and the stock’s recent performance, highlighting the potential impact of the December 8 lockup expiration. Yahoo Finance focuses on the broader market context, noting that SpaceX’s 22% drop aligns with a wider space sector decline and linking the sell-off to Starlink controversies and AI trade weakness. Finbold provides a fundamental analysis, pointing to customer concentration risks, specifically Anthropic’s 34.5% share of Q3 revenue, and massive capital expenditures that have led to negative free cash flow. While BeInCrypto and Finbold highlight the tension between short-term price action and long-term analyst targets, Yahoo Finance frames the decline as part of a sector-wide correction rather than an isolated event.

Why it matters

The drop below the IPO price signals a shift in investor sentiment for one of the most high-profile tech listings of the year. The upcoming December 8 unlock could introduce significant selling pressure, potentially testing support levels near $107. CZ’s public defense of his stake may influence retail investor confidence, but the stock’s heavy reliance on AI revenue and high valuation multiples (518x profit) leave it vulnerable to broader market corrections in the tech sector.

What to watch

Investors will watch the December 8 lockup expiration for potential selling pressure. The next major catalyst is Starship Flight 15, expected next month, where a successful catch of both booster and ship could reverse the downward trend. Additionally, the outcome of the special committee evaluating a potential combination with Tesla will be a key factor in determining long-term strategic direction and valuation.