Midterm Ad Spending Hits Record $11.6B as Broadcast TV Retains 48% Share

Key points

• Total political ad spending for the 2025-26 midterms is forecast at $11.6 billion, surpassing the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle.
• Broadcast television is expected to capture 48% of political ad spend, totaling $5.6 billion, according to AdImpact.
• Connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing category, predicted to capture 23% of the budget ($2.7 billion), but adoption is hindered by a lack of understanding among some consultants.
• Broadcasters like Nexstar Media Group reported record quarterly revenues, with political ad revenue contributing significantly to profit margins due to low production costs.
• Critics argue that campaigns are often treating CTV like linear broadcast, failing to utilize precise targeting tools, which could lead to significant waste in close races.

Background

This trend follows a broader shift in media consumption, where streaming now accounts for 49% of television usage, surpassing cable and broadcast. However, political advertising has lagged behind general advertising trends, which have moved heavily to digital. In the 2022 midterms, total spending was $8.9 billion. The current cycle also sees significant spending by outside groups, which have already spent over $1.2 billion in competitive congressional races, a trend driven by post-2010 legal changes allowing unlimited independent expenditures.

How outlets are covering it

CNBC emphasizes the structural advantages of broadcast, citing trust, reach, and the 'muscle memory' of consultants who are reluctant to shift budgets away from traditional TV. AdExchanger offers a critical view, arguing that campaigns are bringing 'broadcast habits' to CTV, using broad targeting instead of the precise audience intelligence available in streaming, which could cost them billions in efficiency. Furman University’s David Fleming provides a balanced academic perspective, noting that while younger voters lean toward social media, the older demographic that still relies on TV for news ensures broadcast ads will not disappear, highlighting the cost-effectiveness and fine-tuning capabilities of digital ads for specific segments.

Why it matters

The persistence of broadcast dominance in political advertising indicates that trust and broad reach still outweigh the precision of digital targeting in high-stakes elections. For media companies, this represents a crucial revenue stream, with political ads offering high margins due to low production costs. For voters, it suggests that local broadcast news remains a primary source of political messaging, influencing how campaigns allocate resources and how messages are perceived. The tension between broadcast and CTV highlights a strategic gap in the industry, where the failure to adapt to new technologies could lead to inefficient spending and missed opportunities in close races.

What to watch

As the midterms approach, the focus will shift to how effectively campaigns utilize CTV’s targeting capabilities. Analysts expect CTV’s share to continue growing, but the success of this transition depends on consultants moving away from broad, broadcast-style buying. Public broadcasters will likely continue to report strong earnings through the fall, driven by political ad revenue. The debate over the effectiveness of CTV versus broadcast will intensify as election results come in, potentially reshaping future ad strategies.