Data-driven forecast flags a mid-6% mortgage-rate path with upside and downside swings through 2031

A data-powered forecast links mortgage-rate movements to 10-year Treasury yields and an estimated spread, blending Deloitte’s five-year yield projections with Claude AI’s base-case spread. In the base case, five-year outlooks place 30-year mortgage rates around 6.20% in 2027, easing to about 5.90% by 2031. Bull and bear scenarios show wider possibilities: a soft-landing path could push rates toward roughly 5.05% by 2031, while a bear scenario could see rates topping 7% in 2027–28 and only drift down to around 6.9% by 2031. The analysis notes the historical Treasuries–mortgage rate spread (roughly 2.0 percentage points, potentially narrowing to about 1.75–1.90 pp) and cautions that outcomes depend on inflation, Fed policy, oil prices, and geopolitical shocks.