Morgan Stanley’s $300 Target Ignites SpaceX Rally Amid Valuation Debate

Key points

• Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintains a $300 price target for SpaceX (SPCX), citing strong growth in AI and satellite services.
• Shares rose about 4% on Monday, reaching their highest closing level since June 2026.
• Morgan Stanley argues SpaceX trades at a 0.3x growth-adjusted multiple, roughly 40% below the Big Tech median of 0.5x.
• Starlink accounts for approximately 60% of SpaceX’s revenue and is the company’s only profitable segment, with $2.6 billion in Q2 EBITDA.
• SpaceX’s capital expenditures reached $28.5 billion in the first half of 2026, a 309% increase from the same period in 2025.
• The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately $2.2 trillion, with a current share price near $171.

Background

SpaceX’s stock has experienced significant volatility since its initial public offering, peaking near $225 and dropping to $105 earlier in 2026. Recent developments include a delayed Starship orbital flight in September and ongoing share unlocks that have increased market supply. The current rally follows a period where investors weighed the company’s ambitious AI infrastructure investments against its profitability challenges.

How outlets are covering it

Morgan Stanley and MarketWatch emphasize the stock’s relative affordability when growth is factored in, with Jonas noting a 0.3x growth-adjusted multiple compared to the Big Tech median. Conversely, The Motley Fool argues that the stock is unlikely to produce 'millionaire-making' returns due to its $2.2 trillion market cap and heavy capital expenditure. The Motley Fool highlights that SpaceX’s spending on AI data centers has surged 309% year-over-year, raising concerns about profitability. While Morgan Stanley views the high capital expenditure as a sign of future dominance, The Motley Fool sees it as a barrier to significant share price appreciation, suggesting that other AI stocks offer better risk-adjusted returns.

Why it matters

The divergence in analyst opinions highlights the broader market tension between growth-at-all-costs strategies and profitability-focused investing. SpaceX’s performance serves as a bellwether for the AI infrastructure sector, where massive capital expenditures are being scrutinized for return on investment. Investors are watching whether SpaceX can translate its Starlink and AI revenue growth into sustainable profits without diluting shareholder value through excessive spending.

What to watch

Investors will monitor SpaceX’s ability to manage its $28.5 billion capital expenditure run rate while maintaining Starlink’s growth trajectory. The next Starship orbital flight and any updates on AI data center revenue will be critical indicators. Morgan Stanley’s $300 target implies significant upside, but The Motley Fool suggests that the stock may struggle to outperform other AI peers due to its high capital intensity. Watch for changes in Starlink subscriber numbers and any shifts in the company’s capital allocation strategy.