SpaceX targets 13% U.S. wireless market share by 2036 via $8B spectrum deal

Key points

• SpaceX agreed to acquire nationwide spectrum licenses for approximately $8 billion.
• Pivotal Research Group projects SpaceX could capture 13% of the U.S. wireless market by 2036.
• Goldman Sachs raised its price target on SpaceX to $230 from $220, maintaining a Buy rating.
• Starlink Mobile is expected to begin adding subscribers in late 2027 or 2028.
• The company is projected to reach positive EBITDA by 2030.
• SpaceX aims to compete with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile by targeting rural and suburban customers.

Background

SpaceX recently completed a record-breaking IPO in June 2026, with its stock experiencing significant volatility in the months following its debut. The company has been expanding its business beyond aerospace into AI and data centers, including reports of seeking $40 billion in funding to purchase Nvidia chips. Previous coverage noted that SpaceX’s Q2 revenue reached $7.8 billion, with Starlink revenue exceeding $4 billion, indicating strong growth in its satellite internet segment.

How outlets are covering it

Pivotal Research Group and Goldman Sachs both view SpaceX’s entry into the wireless market as a significant growth opportunity, with Goldman raising its price target to $230. CNBC’s Jim Cramer noted that this move validates the bull case, suggesting the company’s ambitious vision is becoming reality faster than expected, though he remains cautious about the stock’s high valuation. In contrast, Deutsche Bank recently argued that the threat posed by SpaceX’s spectrum acquisition to competitors like AST SpaceMobile is misguided. While some analysts see a clear path to profitability by 2030, others highlight risks such as heavy capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and potential shareholder dilution.

Why it matters

SpaceX’s potential entry into the U.S. wireless market could disrupt the competitive landscape dominated by AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. By leveraging its satellite infrastructure, SpaceX may offer lower-cost services to underserved rural and suburban areas, potentially capturing a significant market share. This move also highlights the growing intersection of space technology and terrestrial telecommunications, signaling a shift in how wireless networks are built and operated.

What to watch

Investors will watch for regulatory approvals and the timeline for Starlink Mobile’s subscriber growth, which is expected to begin in late 2027 or 2028. The company’s ability to achieve positive EBITDA by 2030 will be a key metric for assessing the viability of its wireless expansion. Additionally, the outcome of SpaceX’s potential $40 billion funding round for AI infrastructure may influence its capacity to invest in the wireless network.