Florida Senate Race Ties at 45% as Moody and Nixon Split Likely Voters

Key points

• St. Pete Polls surveyed 913 likely voters Sept. 15-17, finding Moody and Nixon tied at 45%, with Moody leading by 0.4% before rounding.
• 7% of likely voters remain undecided, and 3% support other candidates, with less than seven weeks until Election Day.
• Nixon leads 50% to 37% among non-partisan voters and 64% to 25% among voters under 30, while Moody leads 61% to 32% among voters 70 and older.
• Moody leads in Tampa (49% to 41%), Fort Myers, and West Palm Beach; Nixon leads in Jacksonville, Miami, and Orlando.
• Moody raised $11.3 million through July and had $8.4 million on hand, while Nixon had raised less than $1 million by that time but has increased fundraising since winning the nomination.
• Moody declined the first of three debate invitations earlier this month.

Background

Angie Nixon, a state representative and Democratic Socialist of America member, upset former NSC aide Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary in August 2026, despite Vindman outspending her 10-to-1. Ashley Moody, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to replace Marco Rubio, won the GOP primary with 80% of the vote. Earlier polls in spring and summer 2026 showed Moody leading by 7-9 points, but recent surveys have narrowed the gap significantly.

Why it matters

The tie in the Senate race signals a competitive general election in Florida, a key swing state. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and reflects shifting voter dynamics, particularly among younger and independent voters who favor Nixon, while older and suburban voters lean toward Moody.

What to watch

With less than seven weeks until Election Day, both campaigns will focus on undecided voters and key media markets. Moody’s decision to skip the first debate may impact her momentum, while Nixon’s increased fundraising could help close the financial gap. Further polls and debate performances will likely determine the final trajectory of the race.