Polls show Darline Graham trailing in South Carolina despite Trump's backing

Key points

• Darline Graham won the South Carolina Republican primary runoff against Ralph Norman with 52.5% of the vote, securing the nomination for the November Senate race.
• A poll released by the Andrews campaign shows Graham trailing Democratic nominee Annie Andrews by 3 percentage points (39% to 42%), with 13% of voters undecided.
• Graham’s approval rating among likely voters is low, with 50% holding an unfavorable view and only 28% favorable, according to the Andrews campaign poll.
• Ralph Norman refused to endorse Graham, calling the spending by Trump allies to defeat him 'shocking' and urging his supporters to vote for him as a write-in candidate in November.
• Graham admitted during a debate that 'national security is not my thing,' highlighting her lack of political experience despite Trump’s endorsement and super PAC spending.

Background

Lindsey Graham died suddenly in July 2026, prompting a special election to fill his Senate seat in South Carolina. Darline Graham was appointed as an interim senator in July before running for the full term. The 2026 midterms are critical for determining control of Congress and influencing the second half of Trump’s presidency. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, making a Democratic victory highly unlikely but not impossible given current polling.

How outlets are covering it

Daily Kos emphasizes Graham’s unpopularity and the potential for a Democratic upset, citing the Andrews campaign poll and Norman’s refusal to endorse. BBC focuses on the primary result as evidence of Trump’s influence over the Republican Party, noting that political experts expect Graham to win in November despite the polling gap. Both sources agree on the primary outcome but differ on the likelihood of a November victory, with Daily Kos highlighting the risks for Graham and BBC emphasizing the historical dominance of Republicans in South Carolina Senate races.

Why it matters

The outcome of the South Carolina Senate race could impact the balance of power in the US Senate and the ability of the Trump administration to pass legislation. A Democratic victory would be a significant upset in a traditionally red state, while a Republican win would solidify GOP control. The race also highlights the effectiveness of Trump’s endorsement and the challenges faced by inexperienced candidates in high-profile elections.

What to watch

The general election in South Carolina will take place in November 2026. Campaigns for both Graham and Andrews will likely intensify, with focus on voter turnout and undecided voters. Norman’s write-in campaign may also influence the outcome, potentially splitting the Republican vote. National midterm results will be determined in November, with implications for the second half of Trump’s presidency.