2026 Midterms: Polls Predict Democratic Wave as Trump Defends Congress

Key points

• Democrats are favored to win the House with a potential gain of 25 seats and the Senate with a net gain of four seats, according to Nate Silver and other forecasters.
• Early voting has exceeded 54 million ballots, nearly 9 million more than in 2022, with Latino and Black voter participation rising significantly in key states like Texas.
• The Supreme Court rejected Trump’s attempt to block the counting of 20,000 mail-in ballots in California, and a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit to block Alaska from certifying its Senate results.
• The Justice Department sent over 1,000 election monitors to all 50 states, the largest-ever effort, to observe polling places for civil rights violations and voter intimidation.
• Republicans are facing a challenging political climate due to high inflation, the unpopular Iran war, and Trump’s 34% approval rating, while Democrats are energized by economic frustrations and immigration policies.

Background

The 2026 midterms are being framed as a referendum on Trump’s first two years in office. Previous coverage highlighted a surge in early voting past 50 million ballots and a historic shift in polls favoring Democrats. The election is also notable for special Senate races in Ohio and Florida, and for ballot measures on abortion, voting rights, and wealth taxes in several states.

How outlets are covering it

CNN emphasizes the record early voting numbers and the Justice Department’s unprecedented deployment of election monitors, while also highlighting the Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s bid to block California ballots. Al Jazeera focuses on the key issues driving voters, including inflation, immigration, and the Iran war, and notes the Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s bid to block California mail-in ballots. Fox News highlights the Republican perspective, noting that Trump predicts the GOP will hold the House and Senate, and that Republicans are fighting political history. Axios provides a data-driven perspective, noting that polls, models, and prediction markets all point to a Democratic wave, but also warns that pollsters may be missing Trump voters.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s presidency. A Democratic victory in both chambers would significantly limit Trump’s ability to pass legislation and could lead to investigations or impeachments. A Republican victory would allow Trump to continue his agenda with a supportive Congress. The election will also shape the political landscape for the 2028 presidential race and influence policy on key issues such as immigration, healthcare, and the Iran war.

What to watch

Results will begin coming in as polls close, starting at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, with the final polls closing at 1 a.m. ET in Alaska. The outcome of the House and Senate races will be clear within hours, and the results will determine the balance of power in Congress for the next two years. The Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s bid to block California ballots and the Justice Department’s deployment of election monitors will also be closely watched for any potential legal challenges or civil rights violations.