South Carolina Senate Race Remains a Coin Flip as Final Polls Show Tight Margin

Key points

• Rick Quinn’s poll shows Andrews leading Nordone by 1.6%, while Robert Cahaly’s poll shows Nordone leading by 2.0%.
• The NY Times/Siena poll shows the race tied at 48% each, confirming the extreme competitiveness of the contest.
• Republican gubernatorial candidate Alan Wilson holds a significant lead, suggesting high GOP turnout may not save the Senate race.
• Internal GOP fractures and Nordone’s lack of political experience are cited as key factors in the tight race.

Background

This race became unexpectedly competitive after incumbent Lindsey Graham died in July 2026. His sister, Darline Graham Nordone, was appointed to finish his term and subsequently sought a full six-year term. Historically, South Carolina has been a reliable Republican stronghold, with no Democrat winning a statewide Senate or gubernatorial race since 1998. The current contest is part of a broader national trend where Republicans are struggling in midterms due to low presidential approval ratings.

How outlets are covering it

Pollsters disagree on the direction of the race. FITSNews cites Rick Quinn, who notes a late surge for Nordone following two visits from President Trump, but still gives Andrews a narrow lead. Conversely, Robert Cahaly’s poll favors Nordone. The NY Times/Siena poll reports a dead heat. Time Magazine and AP News emphasize that Nordone’s inexperience and the fractured GOP base, particularly among supporters of rival candidate Ralph Norman, are critical vulnerabilities. FITSNews highlights the importance of Black voter turnout, noting that a drop in this demographic could doom Nordone’s campaign.

Why it matters

The outcome of this race could mark the first Democratic victory in a South Carolina statewide race in over two decades. It also serves as a bellwether for the national midterm trend, where Republicans are facing significant challenges in traditional strongholds due to economic dissatisfaction and internal party divisions.

What to watch

Voters in South Carolina will cast their ballots on November 3, 2026. The final outcome will depend on Election Day turnout, particularly among Black voters and undecided Republicans. Analysts expect the result to be determined by a narrow margin, with early voting data suggesting a tight contest.