Alaska Senate Race Narrows to Ranked-Choice Tabulation as Peltola Extends Lead

Key points

• Peltola leads Sullivan by nearly 6,000 votes in the latest count, holding 48.92% of first-choice votes, but requires 50% to win outright.
• Approximately 40,000 to 55,000 ballots remain uncounted, including absentee and overseas mail ballots, with a major update expected on November 13 and final tabulation on November 18.
• Preliminary ranked-choice analysis indicates Peltola would win the runoff by roughly 3,000 votes, as she gains more transferred votes from the similarly named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. than Sullivan gains from Gerald Heikes.
• A Trump administration lawsuit attempting to block results impacted by voter confusion was dismissed by a district court, though the administration is appealing the decision.
• In the governor’s race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has surpassed 50% of first-choice votes, securing a likely victory, while Republican Nick Begich maintains a lead in the U.S. House race.

Background

Alaska’s 2026 midterms have been defined by the use of ranked-choice voting, which has delayed final results for multiple races. Previous coverage noted that Peltola’s lead fluctuated between 600 and 4,250 votes in early counts, with the presence of a third candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., complicating the transfer of votes. The state’s unique voting logistics, including a 15-day window for counting late-arriving absentee ballots, have historically favored Democratic candidates in close races, though the outcome remains uncertain until all ballots are certified.

How outlets are covering it

The Hill emphasizes the uncertainty of the race, noting that Peltola is the favorite but Sullivan has a path to victory through ranked-choice transfers. Alaska Public Media highlights the narrowing of Peltola’s lead and the legal challenges surrounding the election, including the Trump administration’s lawsuit. The Alaska Beacon and Anchorage Daily News focus on the preliminary data indicating Peltola’s likely victory in the runoff, while also noting the growth of Kreiss-Tomkins’ lead in the governor’s race. All sources agree that the final outcome will not be known until November 18, but they differ in their assessment of the likelihood of an outright victory for Peltola versus a ranked-choice runoff.

Why it matters

The Alaska Senate race is the final uncalled race in the 2026 midterms, with the potential to determine the final margin of Democratic control in the Senate. The outcome will also have implications for the use of ranked-choice voting in future elections, as Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal the system, is currently failing. The race highlights the complexities of ranked-choice voting and the potential for legal challenges to influence election outcomes.

What to watch

The next major update in the Alaska Senate race is expected on November 13, with final ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18. The Trump administration’s appeal of the dismissed lawsuit may also impact the final certification of results. In the governor’s race, Kreiss-Tomkins is expected to be certified as the winner, while Begich is likely to retain his U.S. House seat.