Arab American Voters in Michigan Shift from Trump to El-Sayed Over Broken Promises

Key points

• A Washington Post-Schar School poll indicates 58% of Arab Americans now support Democrats for Congress, reversing the even split seen in 2024.
• Voters like Faye Nemer and Walid Fidama cite unfulfilled promises regarding the Gaza war and rising inflation as reasons for switching to El-Sayed.
• El-Sayed has adopted the 'America First' slogan and aired ads on Fox News and Newsmax to appeal to conservative voters.
• Bishara Bahbah, founder of Arab Americans for Trump, renamed his group to Arab Americans for Peace after Trump claimed Gaza was US property.
• Trump’s recent Islamophobic attacks on El-Sayed, including calling him 'Muhammad,' have further alienated the community, according to The New Yorker.

Background

The 2026 Michigan Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has become a focal point for Arab American voters. Previous coverage noted that Trump’s rhetoric, including invoking 9/11 and labeling El-Sayed a 'jihadist,' sparked backlash from former allies. Additionally, HHS Secretary RFK Jr. faced criticism for false claims about Arab scientific contributions during a campaign event. These incidents have intensified the divide between the Republican party and its 2024 Arab American coalition, which was crucial in delivering Michigan to Trump.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post highlights the pragmatic shift among voters who view El-Sayed as the true embodiment of 'America First' due to his opposition to foreign wars and focus on domestic issues. In contrast, The New Yorker focuses on the emotional and political fallout for Bishara Bahbah, a former Trump ally who now criticizes the president’s bigotry and broken promises. While the Post emphasizes the strategic realignment of voters, The New Yorker underscores the personal disillusionment and the broader Islamophobic attacks that have driven the community away from the Republican party. Both sources agree that the failure to resolve the Gaza conflict is the primary driver of this political shift.

Why it matters

The shift of Arab American voters from Trump to El-Sayed could determine the outcome of the Michigan Senate race, a key battleground for congressional control. This realignment signals a potential fracture in the Republican coalition, as voters prioritize foreign policy outcomes and economic stability over party loyalty. It also highlights the effectiveness of El-Sayed’s strategy to appeal to conservative voters by adopting their language and focusing on issues they care about, such as ending foreign wars and improving the domestic economy.

What to watch

The Michigan Senate race is expected to remain a toss-up, with both campaigns intensifying their efforts to court Arab American voters. El-Sayed is likely to continue his outreach to conservative voters, while the Republican party may face challenges in rebuilding trust with the community. The outcome of this race could have broader implications for the 2026 midterms and the future of the Republican party’s relationship with Arab American voters.