Bass Erases Raman’s Lead in LA Mayoral Race as DSA Fractures Over Israel
A new UC Berkeley poll shows the Los Angeles mayoral race is a dead heat, with incumbent Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman tied at 40%. Bass’s surge is driven by conservative voters and older Latinos, while Raman faces internal socialist division over Israel policy.
Key points
- The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows Bass and Raman tied at 40% among likely voters, with 19% undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
- Bass erased an 11-point deficit from September, gaining support from Republican primary voters and older Latino voters, while Raman’s lead among younger Latinos narrowed.
- Raman’s unfavorable rating (49%) now exceeds her favorable rating (42%), a shift attributed to Bass’s aggressive negative campaigning.
- The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is fractured, with national leaders potentially rescinding the LA chapter’s endorsement of Raman over her stance on the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.
- Top voter priorities include reducing homelessness (43%), public safety (29%), and affordable housing (29%).
Background
In September, Raman led by 11 points (39% to 28%) with 33% undecided. Bass, who has faced high disapproval since the 2025 wildfires, intensified her campaign to close the gap. The race is also influenced by the DSA’s internal conflict, where national leaders have criticized the LA chapter for endorsing Raman without vetting her on Israel policy, a dispute that has drawn national media attention.
How outlets are covering it
The Los Angeles Times emphasizes the polling shift and the impact of Bass’s negative ads on Raman’s favorability. Axios focuses on the 'socialist civil war' within DSA, highlighting the national committee’s push to revoke Raman’s endorsement over Israel policy. The American Prospect argues that the DSA’s internal dispute is a distraction, noting that Raman is not a true socialist and that Bass’s defeat is likely due to broader voter dissatisfaction rather than ideological differences. All sources agree the race is close, but they differ on whether the outcome hinges on polling dynamics or internal party conflicts.
Why it matters
The race determines the leadership of the second-largest U.S. city, with implications for homelessness, housing, and public safety. The DSA dispute also signals a broader tension within the left between electoral pragmatism and ideological purity, potentially affecting future progressive campaigns.
What to watch
The DSA National Political Committee is scheduled to meet with Raman on Oct. 31 to decide on her endorsement. The Nov. 3 election will determine whether Bass retains her seat or Raman becomes the first socialist mayor of Los Angeles.
- Bass comes from behind, now in dead heat with Raman in mayor’s race, new poll shows Los Angeles Times
- Nithya Raman Is Not L.A.’s Mamdani. But She Might Become Mayor, Too. The New York Times
- Socialist civil war engulfs Los Angeles mayor race Axios
- LA mayor race: Karen Bass admits to mistakes on homelessness, slams Nithya Raman for wavering on positions 'every other day' ABC7 Los Angeles
- The Question Before Los Angeles Isn’t Whether to Have a Socialist Mayor The American Prospect
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